Top bank revisits gold stock price target for rest of 2026
You’re looking at a gold market that has already smashed through old records, and Bank of Montreal is effectively saying: this run may not be over yet.
The bank now sees gold “rising near $6,500/oz in 2026” in its bull-case scenario, a meaningful jump from its prior, more conservative forecasts, Kitco News reported on Feb. 19, 2026.
That kind of reset effectively raises the ceiling on where one of Canada’s biggest banks thinks gold can reasonably trade over the next couple of years.
With spot prices hovering a little above $5,100 an ounce, BMO is implicitly sketching out a potential 20%-plus upside from here if its bullish script plays out.
For you as an investor, that’s not just a price call; it’s a statement about how the bank expects the next phase of the macro cycle to unfold: slower growth, persistent uncertainty, and central banks that are still quietly (and not so quietly) buying gold.
Why BMO is more bullish on gold than before
When a major bank revises a commodity target, it’s usually not about a single data point. BMO’s more aggressive upside for gold rests on a mix of familiar but powerful drivers that have become harder to ignore:
- Central-bank demand is now “structural,” not cyclical.
Central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold annually in both 2023 and 2024 and stayed near that pace in 2025, a stark shift from pre-2022 norms, World Gold Council data shows.
BMO leans on this trend as a key reason the market can sustain higher equilibrium prices than in past cycles.
- Policy and geopolitical risk refuse to fade.
BMO’s team highlights a world where policy surprises—from tariffs to sanctions to shifting alliances—have become a feature, not a bug, Kitco’s coverage notes.
For you, that translates into recurring demand for hedges, particularly from institutions and sovereigns that don’t want to be overexposed to any single currency or political regime.
- Real rates may not stay as restrictive as feared.
Even after a long hiking cycle, market pricing still bakes in the possibility of further easing into 2026 if growth softens or inflation undershoots.
BMO’s bullish case assumes real yields don’t move meaningfully higher from here, which keeps the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold manageable.
Put together, BMO is essentially arguing that the “new normal” for gold may be a high plateau rather than a brief spike.
More Gold:
- Gold, silver surge after record drop flashes technical signal
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- J.P. Morgan revises gold price target for 2026
You could still see sharp pullbacks, but the bank is less convinced that any correction will send gold all the way back to its pre-rally range.
Why BMO Is More Careful on Silver
The headline number is all about gold, but BMO also uses this forecast to draw a line between the yellow metal and its more volatile cousin, silver.
BMO’s analysts highlight that silver’s market balance looks less supportive, with supply and industrial demand roughly in line rather than dramatically tight, Kitco News reported.
The message: you shouldn’t assume silver will simply follow gold tick-for-tick higher.
Here’s how BMO’s stance effectively breaks down for a personal investor:
- Gold is the macro hedge.
BMO treats gold as a play on policy uncertainty, reserve diversification, and central-bank behavior.
Those forces don’t automatically spill over into silver with the same intensity.
- Silver is still an industrial metal.
Silver sits at the crossroads of precious and industrial demand for solar, electronics, and other manufacturing-heavy segments dominate usage.
If growth slows more than expected, industrial demand could wobble even as gold benefits from safe-haven flows.
- Volatility cuts both ways.
Historically, silver has outpaced gold in late-stage bull runs, but it also tends to overshoot on the way down.
BMO’s cautious tone is a reminder that, if you’re tempted by silver’s upside, you’re also signing up for higher drawdown risk than with gold.
So while BMO’s headline is “gold near $6,500,” the subtext is: don’t blindly extrapolate that bullishness to every metal in the complex.
How BMO’s call fits with other big banks
One reason this BMO update matters is that it doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Several of the largest global banks have already raised their gold targets, and BMO is essentially joining (and stretching) the upper end of that pack.
As highlighted in my recent TheStreet roundup of JPMorgan’s forecasts, major institutions now cluster in a relatively tight but elevated band:
- J.P. Morgan: About $6,300/oz end-2026, which is slightly below BMO’s ~$6,500 bull case.
- UBS: Around $6,200/oz 2026 target. This is in line with bullish but not extreme scenarios.
- Deutsche Bank: About $6,000/oz 2026 target. Moderately bullish, below top-end calls.
- Goldman Sachs: Roughly $5,400/oz end-2026. Bullish, but more conservative than BMO’s bull case.
What you’re seeing is a consensus migration:
- A year ago, $3,000 to $4,000 gold looked optimistic; now, $5,000-plus is the floor for most big-bank 2026 models, with $6,000 to $6,500 as the stretch.
- BMO’s near-$6,500 bull case effectively plants a flag at the high end of that spectrum and tells clients, “This is no longer a fringe scenario.”
For you, that doesn’t mean the market is “guaranteed” to go there.
But when multiple banks with different methodologies converge toward higher targets, it often shapes how asset managers, pension funds, and family offices think about strategic allocations.
What potential gold prices means for you
You don’t need to trade futures or chase leveraged ETFs to react to BMO’s call.
When I look at this kind of target hike, I think first about position sizing, time horizon, and how gold fits into the rest of my financial life, not about finding the most aggressive product on the shelf.
Here’s how I’d frame it for myself.
- Gold as a core hedge, not a lottery ticket.
If I already hold 5% to 10% of my portfolio in gold or gold-related assets, BMO’s new target is a reason for me to revisit that allocation, not an automatic reason to double it.
My read of BMO’s outlook is that the upside case is compelling, but the base case still bakes in real volatility and the potential for sharp drawdowns along the way, which I have to be prepared to ride out.
- Exposure matters!
I try to remember that physical bullion, gold-backed ETFs, and gold miners do not behave the same way when prices start swinging around.
In my view, miners can outperform in a rising-price environment, but they also tend to fall harder if costs rise or if the gold price stalls below those 6,000 dollar plus targets BMO and other banks are talking about.
- Don’t forget your risk budget
When I look at my own portfolio, I ask whether I am already heavily tilted toward other “risk off” assets like long-duration Treasuries or defensive sectors.
If I am, piling more into gold at this stage could over hedge my portfolio and leave me underexposed if risk assets recover, even if the long-term case for gold still looks strong.
Gold’s story into 2026 is no longer just about inflation or one central-bank decision.
BMO’s revised target underscores a bigger shift: in a world that feels less predictable year by year, more of the heavy money is willing to pay up for an old-fashioned hedge.
