Morgan Stanley tweaks AMD stock price target post-earnings

Despite another robust quarterly performance, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) finds itself in an uncomfortable backdrop.

Morgan Stanley just cut its AMD stock price target to $255 from $260 after earnings, while keeping an equal-weight rating. Despite the cut, following AMD’s post-earnings sell-off, it’s currently trading around $200, implying a superb 28% upside.

AMD’s earnings couldn’t have landed at a worse time, as its post-earnings swoon got caught in the middle of a broader AI-tech de-risking.

Software stocks took a monumental beating, amid fears that Anthropic’s newly released tools stoked the whole “SaaS is dead” debate.

The damage is about $830 billion since Jan. 28, Reuters reported.

Moreover, AMD stock tanked 17% on Feb. 4, 2026, the day after reporting.

Pushing back against the notion that AI makes current software tools obsolete, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was compelled to respond. “It is the most illogical thing in the world, and time will prove itself,” he said, according to Business Insider.

Against that chaos, though, Morgan Stanley’s note reads more like a recalibration.

The bank argues the next big test for the tech giant isn’t another beat, but whether it could prove rack-scale AI demand is real, durable, and not driven by flashy headlines.

AMD’s Q4 earnings report by the numbers

• Q4 revenue:$10.270 billion, versus Wall Street$9.668 billion
• Data Center:$5.380 billion (up 23.9% quarter over quarter and 39.4% year over year)
• Gross margin:57%, versus Wall Street 54.5%
• EPS:$1.53 versus Wall Street $1.32
• Q1 revenue guide:$9.8 billion midpoint versus Wall Street $9.416 billion
• Q1 gross margin guide: 55% (behind JPMorgan’s 56.6% estimate, but above Wall Street)
  Source: JPMorgan post-earnings note on AMD

The quiet strength behind AMD’s quarter

Strip away all the noise, and Morgan Stanley analysts believe AMD posted a solid print, even without the China kicker.

One of the big knocks on AMD’s Q4 report is the $390 million in MI308 sales linked to China.

AMD CEO Lisa Su addressed the situation, saying the revenue came from orders placed in early 2025, while acknowledging the fluidity of the situation in China.

Nevertheless, the surprise tailwind apparently paddled the headline numbers. However, if you disregard those numbers, Morgan Stanley argues that sales would still have landed just below the high end of guidance. 

That same logic carries over to the guidance debate in Q1. 

AMD effectively guided $9.8 billion in sales at the midpoint, and with the $100 million from MI308 China sales removed, the guide implies just around a 2% sequential revenue decline. That’s clearly a far cry from the collapse AMD’s stock action suggests.

Also, AMD’s guidance looks a lot more conservative once we dig into the details. 

The tech giant expects its potent data center business to grow in Q1, while the rest of its businesses slow down following seasonal patterns early in the year. 

Morgan Stanley analysts found that AMD’s forecast most likely assumes its non-data center segments will drop nearly 15% from the prior quarter, worse than typical seasonal declines. 

It shows that the company might still have some upside in its outlook, especially if data-center demand proves healthier than expected.

Related: Top analyst drops eye-popping new price target on SanDisk stock

Moreover, the confidence is rooted in servers. 

Morgan Stanley highlighted the supply tightness in general-purpose server CPUs, driven by Intel constraints and healthy demand, leaving AMD “carrying most of the growth” into Q1.

Critically, AMD didn’t point to any supply-related bottlenecks for either servers or its next-gen MI455 accelerators.

Outside of the data center, it’s a more mixed, yet stabilizing, picture. 

Client PCs posted modest upside in Q4, with expectations of a testy 2026 due to higher input costs. However, AMD feels its market share gains will likely offset the drag. Embedded sales are also turning a corner, posting their first year-over-year growth since June 2023, operating in a more conducive environment ahead.

However, Gaming remains a weak spot.

Last year’s console restocking tailwinds have ebbed, and without a new flagship console, Morgan Stanley has to trim its 2026 expectations.

“All eyes” remain on AMD’s rack-scale AI

Morgan Stanley feels the real big catalyst for AMD is its rack-scale AI endeavors with the MI455.

Encouragingly, MI355 has been posting some impressive numbers and is tracking stronger than expected, above $2 billion per quarter if we take China out of the equation.

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That immense strength matters a ton because it allows AMD to efficiently bridge the gap into the next cycle, avoiding a stumble along the way.

In a piece I wrote last month on AMD, I argued that the company was often overlooked in favor of Nvidia because its story felt fragmented.

With Helios, AMD’s rack-scale AI platform, I made the analogy that it’s essentially a factory that bundles the entire AI project together.

Unsurprisingly, CEO Su acknowledged this, “with the launch of MI400 series and Helios representing a major inflection point for the business.” 

Morgan Stanley analysts echo the sentiment, arguing that rack-scale supremacy remains the gating factor. 

Encouragingly, AMD just told investors that the MI455 remains on schedule for Q3 delivery, backed by a major revenue ramp in Q4.

However, the key risk is that the bank’s checks on the racks are more constructive than conclusive, with much depending on the customer’s evaluation.

During the call, CEO Su effectively laid down the gauntlet. 

Related: Bank of America resets AMD stock price target as shares plunge