Goldman Sachs revamps gold price target for the rest of 2026

Gold has been on one of the most powerful runs in its modern history. Spot prices touched an all-time high near $5,589 in late January 2026 before pulling back and stabilizing above $5,000. As of Feb. 25, the metal is trading around $5,187 per ounce, still near historic highs, and — as I wrote recently — on track for consecutive monthly gains stretching back through most of 2025.

Goldman Sachs is keeping its foot on the gas. The bank raised its year-end 2026 gold price target to $5,400 per ounce in January, and recently pushed back firmly against the idea that gold’s surge signals a broader commodity supercycle.

For investors trying to make sense of where gold goes from here, Goldman’s view offers one of the clearest road maps on Wall Street.

Why Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target to $5,400

In January, Goldman raised its year-end 2026 gold price target to $5,400 per ounce, up from a prior forecast of $4,900, per Kitco News.

The analysts behind the call, Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas, pointed to a shift in who is buying gold and why.

• Western exchange-traded funds added around 500 tonnes since the start of 2025, outpacing what interest rate cuts alone would explain.
• High-net-worth individuals and family offices are buying physical bars.
• Institutions are purchasing call options on gold ETFs as a hedge against what Goldman describes as the “debasement trade,” a growing concern over long-term fiscal sustainability, and
• Central bank independence in major Western economies.

The bank calls these “sticky” positions because they are tied to structural macro risk, not short-term events that can resolve quickly.

Central banks underpin the whole structure. Goldman forecasts central banks will buy an average of 60 tonnes of gold per month in 2026, sustained by emerging market reserve managers diversifying away from dollar-heavy holdings.

Related: J.P. Morgan drops blunt reality check on gold price surge

China’s central bank extended its gold purchases for the 15th consecutive month in January 2026, per Trading Economics, underscoring how durable that demand has become.

What is driving Goldman’s upgraded gold forecast

• Private investor positioning: Buyers hedging long-term macro risks, including fiscal deficits and policy uncertainty, hold positions Goldman describes as unlikely to unwind in 2026
• ETF inflows: Western gold ETFs added roughly 500 tonnes since early 2025, well above what rate cuts alone predicted, pointing to structural reallocation rather than tactical positioning
• Central bank buying: Goldman forecasts 60 tonnes per month of central bank purchases in 2026, with China alone extending purchases for 15 straight months through January
• Debasement trade: Concern over government debt levels and long-term monetary stability is adding a new category of demand that did not feature prominently in prior gold cycles

Goldman says gold’s rally is not a commodity supercycle signal

Gold’s surge prompted widespread talk of a commodity supercycle, the kind of multi-year boom across energy, metals and agriculture that China’s industrialization produced in the 2000s. Goldman is not buying it.

“We’re not expecting a super cycle where prices will just go higher forever,” said Lina Thomas, Goldman’s senior commodities analyst, on the firm’s Markets podcast published Feb. 13.

More Gold:

• Gold, silver surge after record drop flashes technical signal
• Silver and gold tumble triggers major reset for mining stocks
• J.P. Morgan revises gold price target for 2026

The distinction comes down to what gold responds to versus what industrial commodities need.

Copper, steel and oil require synchronized global manufacturing growth and infrastructure spending to sustain big rallies. China’s property sector remains under pressure, suppressing steel and copper demand. Energy consumption is growing steadily but not explosively.

There is no synchronized global demand surge that would power a supercycle across the board.

Gold sidesteps those constraints entirely. It is a financial asset first, a commodity second. When real yields fall, currencies look shaky or governments look fiscally stretched, gold attracts bids regardless of whether factories are busy or shipping containers are full.

Goldman expects that dynamic to persist through 2026, keeping gold on its own path while base metals remain range-bound.

How Goldman’s view compares to other Wall Street forecasts

Goldman’s $5,400 target is the most conservative among the major banks currently covering gold.

• J.P. Morgan raised its year-end target to $6,300 on Feb. 2, per Reuters, projecting central bank and investor demand to average 585 tonnes per quarter through the year.
• Deutsche Bank reiterated its $6,000 target that same week.
• UBS raised its target to $6,200 for the first three quarters of 2026, with an upside scenario at $7,200, per Reuters.

The gap between Goldman’s more measured call and competitors’ higher targets reflects different assumptions about private-sector behavior.

Goldman’s base case does not rely on a fresh wave of new investors entering the market beyond current flows. The more bullish forecasts from J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and UBS assume continued rotation from bonds and equities into gold as households and institutions reassess long-term fiscal risk.

Both views rest on the same structural foundation. They just disagree on how far private demand can run.

Goldman acknowledges the risks are skewed upward.

“Risks to the upgraded forecast are significantly skewed to the upside because private-sector investors may diversify further on lingering global policy uncertainty,” Struyven and Thomas wrote in the Jan. 21 note, per Bloomberg.

Downside scenarios require a sharp Fed pivot toward rate hikes or a sustained equity rally that pulls money away from defensive positions.

What Goldman’s gold outlook means for investors in 2026

The practical message for portfolio managers is to treat gold as its own asset class governed by monetary trends and reserve flows, not by factory output or trade cycle data.

Goldman’s framework centers on two data streams: central bank purchase volumes and ETF inflow rates. The World Gold Council publishes both on a regular basis and is the most reliable primary source for tracking those figures.

Near-term triggers worth monitoring include Federal Reserve commentary on rate cut timing, China’s physical gold demand data following the Lunar New Year holiday and any escalation in Middle East tensions or global trade policy.

Goldman stays constructive but measured, expecting steady upside without the dramatic, synchronized commodity surge that a true supercycle would require.

Gold’s rally is real and Goldman says it has further to run. But it belongs to gold alone. Investors chasing a broader commodity boom on the back of gold’s surge should temper those expectations and follow the data instead.

Related: Goldman Sachs delivers contrarian take on the economy