Top bank resets gold price target into late 2026
Gold has a wild few days, but UBS thinks the bigger story still lies ahead.
With the shiny metal trading around $4,865 an ounce, the bank just bumped its price target to $6,200 for March, June, and September 2026, up from $5,000 previously.
That base case implies an incredible 27% upside from current prices, after yesterday’s steep pullback.
UBS didn’t stop there.
It expects gold to modestly pull back around $5,900 by the end of 2026, following the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, which is still 20% above today’s spot price.
On top of that, it also laid out an array of outcomes, including an upside scenario of $7,200 an ounce (nearly50% upside) if geopolitical risks rise, and a downside case of $4,600 on a tighter monetary policy.
The note lands at a moment when gold suffered its steepest decline in years, the sharpest since 1983.
Gold prices plummeted nearly 9% in a single session, from around $5,373 after hitting record highs on Thursday at $5,595. Silver’s drop was even more dramatic, dropping over 25%.
Nevertheless, UBS believes the structural drivers of gold prices remain in play.
That sentiment aligns with a growing list of other major banks that have recently tweaked their gold price targets.
- Goldman Sachs just lifted its year-end gold target to $5,400 an ounce, a healthy 10% increase from its previous $4,900 call.
- Similarly, Deutsche Bank also joined the reset in sharply raising its gold price target to $6,000 an ounce.
- JPMorgan went even further in sketching an eye-watering upside scenario of $8,000 to $8,500 an ounce if private allocations continue to move higher.
However, our resident personal finance expert and fellow TheStreet contributor, Tobi Amure, has a more contrarian view, arguing that markets might settle into a more stable trading range.
Gold price returns in USD (30 days to 20 years)
- 30 days: +$1,002.21 (+23.17%).
- 6 months: +$2,029.73 (+61.55%).
- 1 year: +$2,529.00 (+90.37%).
- 5 years: +$3,468.21 (+186.52%).
- 20 years: +$4,757.91 (+835.09%).
Goldprice.org
Silver price returns in USD (30 days to 20 years)
- 30 days: +$43.04 (+60.22%).
- 6 months: +$77.83 (+212.24%).
- 1 year: +$83.12 (+264.88%).
- 5 years: +$85.82 (+299.22%).
- 20 years: +$104.65 (+1,062.47%).
Goldprice.org
The Fed-chair chatter that helped flip gold and silver
The precious metals trade got a reality check yesterday, but Wall Street veterans aren’t too fazed by the move.
More Gold:
- Market uncertainty resets silver, gold bets
- Billionaire Dalio sends 2-word warning on markets
- Every major analyst’s gold price forecast for 2026
In a CNBC interview, top Wall Street strategist Tom Lee said that the gold-and-silver selloff was mostly a long-overdue air pocket following a relentless move higher.
The drop was primarily due to the market’s“rethinking the implications of a new Fed chair,” with the timing catching investors mostly off guard. Nevertheless, he feels the pullback was healthy, and following gold’s monumental run, a bout of profit-taking was necessary.
Legendary economist Jeremy Siegel also agreed with the assessment, saying that when “momentum players” jump in, these sharp moves on even the smallest of catalysts are expected. Once investors began believing the Fed would likely remain disciplined, the dollar jumped, and precious metals lost some of their sheen.
Moreover, both experts lauded Kevin Warsh as a credible Fed-chair option, with Siegel hailing him as the “most responsible, qualified” pick.
The sentiment feeds into UBS’s rationale, which holds that forces pushing gold are in place but have become more two-sided.
Naturally, the heightened ongoing investment underpins the stronger targets, but a firmer U.S. dollar and a more hawkishFederal Reserve underscore a more volatile trade as we head deeper into 2026.
Related: Morgan Stanley sets bold new price target on Nvidia stock
SPDR Gold Shares versus SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
- GLD vs SPY, 1-month total return: 24.41% vs 0.90%.
- GLD vs SPY, 6-month total return: 61.93% vs 9.88%.
- GLD vs SPY, 1-year total return: 95.08% vs 16.68%.
- GLD vs SPY, 3-year total return: 176.70% vs 77.97%.
- GLD vs SPY, 5-year total return: 187.30% vs 100.91%.
SeekingAlpha.com
What history really says about gold and midterm elections
U.S. midterm elections usually matter a lot less on their own for gold prices.
Related: Bank of America delivers sobering stock market take
History shows that the shiny yellow metal doesn’t rise purely on the uncertainty surrounding a mid-term election. Instead, it’s more of a reaction to what comes after, including policy expectations and the U.S. dollar situation.
Research from the World Gold Council shows that the clearest impact from mid-term elections usually shows up in stocks.
Since 1970, U.S. stocks have typically posted gains in the first six months following every midterm election studied. However, Gold’s record has been less consistent, rising nearly 62% of the time, with a gain of just 2% over the same period.
So the fundamentals are a lot more important for gold prices to move, and though midterms usually lead to policy gridlock, markets often shift focus back to rates and the dollar.
If the Federal Reserve remains hawkish and the dollar strengthens, gold will likely cool off.
