Weekly data: Oil and Gold: Price review for the week ahead.

This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook.

Highlights of the week: BoC & Fed interest rate decision, flash EU GDP, German inflation, US PPI

 Wednesday

• Bank of Canada Interest rate decision at 14:45 GMT is expected to remain stable at 2.25%. A surprise hike in interest rates would support the loonie in the short term, while an unlikely rate cut might create some turmoil for the currency.
• The Fed interest rate decision at 19:00 GMT is broadly expected to remain steady at 3.75%, with the probability of a cut below 3%. Participants are closely focusing on what the central bankers will say in the subsequent press conference to get hints about the future direction of monetary policy.

 Friday

• Flash European GDP growth at 10:00 AM GMT, where the quarterly figure is expected to remain stable at 0.3% and the annualised figure to decline from 1.4% to 1.2%. Even though this is flash data and not the final ones, if we see any significant deviation from the expected data, it might create volatility in the Euro pairs around the time of the release.
• Preliminary German inflation rate at 13:00 GMT. The market consensus for January is an increase of around 0.4%, bringing the figure to 2.2%. If this is broadly accurate, it could most likely influence European inflation data next week.
• S Producers Price Index (PPI) at 13:30 GMT. Market participants expect the figure to remain stable at 0.2% in December. If this is confirmed, it could indicate that inflation might slow in the next reading, as producers’ costs usually roll down to consumers, pushing inflation figures to the upside; if they remain stable, it could hint that inflation might not increase in the near-term outlook.

USOIL, daily

Oil prices held onto recent gains as heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran kept investors on edge, maintaining a geopolitical risk premium in the market. U.S. crude prices were supported by fears of potential supply disruptions after President Trump said a U.S. naval strike group was heading toward the Middle East, while Iran warned that any attack would be treated as an act of war. At the same time, geopolitical support was partially offset by improving supply conditions, as Kazakhstan’s main export pipeline returned to full capacity following maintenance. U.S. crude production was also temporarily disrupted by severe winter weather, removing around 250,000 barrels per day, which added short-term support. Despite these factors, broader structural concerns about potential oversupply in 2026 continue to cap upside, keeping gains limited unless geopolitical tensions escalate further or producers announce meaningful output cuts.

On the technical side, the crude oil price found sufficient support on the 100-day simple moving average early last week and has since corrected to the upside. This has pushed the Stochastic oscillator to the upper half of the “neutral” levels while the moving averages are still validating an overall bearish trend in the market. The Bollinger Bands are quite expanded indicating that there is volatility to support any sharp moves in the upcoming sessions. Overall, the $62 remains a strong resistance level for the price since it consists of the 61.8% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level, the upper band of the Bollinger and is an area of price reaction in multiple occasions in the past 3-4 months.

Gold-dollar, daily

Gold hit a fresh all-time high above $5,100 an ounce, extending its rally as investors moved into safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and global fiscal concerns. The surge has been driven by multiple geopolitical flashpoints, including Greenland, Venezuela, and the Middle East, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against uncertainty. Demand is coming from both institutional and retail investors, with banks highlighting strong central-bank buying and sustained private investment. Western ETF holdings have risen sharply since early 2025, while high-net-worth investors are increasingly using physical gold to hedge macro and policy risks. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, continue to add gold at a pace far above historical averages. Major banks expect this demand to remain persistent, with forecasts pointing to further upside into 2026, with gold supported by “sticky” hedging against fiscal sustainability and broader macro risks rather than short-term political events.

From a technical point of view, gold hit a new all-time high above $5,000 and there is massive volatility behind this move as it is shown from the expanded Bollinger Bands. Given this information it is safe to say that the trend is supported and there are no major signs of a reversal whatsoever. The moving averages are validating the bullish trend while the Stochastic oscillator is still in extreme overbought conditions but does not seem to negatively affect the price. For the time being the only support area might be found at $5,000 as it is considered a psychological support of the round number while on the other hand the next price target ,given that the price continues to trade upwards, might be the $5,100 and $5,200.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness or Finance Feeds.